Saronic Technologies' unmanned surface vehicle completes naval exercises off the coast of California in 2023. (U.S. Navy photo)
Unmanned Vehicle “Hellscape” Will Play a Crucial Role in the Defense of Taiwan
If China moves to invade Taiwan, top U.S. Navy leadership plans to turn the South China Sea into a “hellscape” of unmanned vehicles. A U.S. Department of Defense initiative, Replicator 1, is currently building thousands of autonomous vehicles for the purpose of all-domain warfighting. As of January 2025, the project was on track for completion by August. However, to successfully carry out an autonomous vehicle-driven defense of Taiwan, the U.S. needs to ramp up Replicator drone spending.
Challenges of Conflict in the South China Sea
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has a distinct geographic advantage in any potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan. While the U.S. operates more guided missile cruisers and destroyers than China, they are dispersed throughout international waters. By the time Chinese vessels cross the short distance of the South China Sea in an invasion, most American ships will still be days away.
The PLAN also has production advantages that have allowed them to rapidly surpass the U.S. Navy in size. The PLAN has 234 active warships and the U.S. has 219. The gap is not large, but the PLAN has circumvented the supply chain delays and financial challenges plaguing the U.S. Navy. There is a 11-year delay for U.S. shipbuilding capacity, forcing the DoD to rely on offshore contractors for most of its essential defense systems. Meanwhile, China is largely self-sufficient in its shipbuilding and maintains a naval stronghold in the Indo-Pacific.
DDG-51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers take approximately four years to build and are expected to face cost increases of $400 million, bringing the total up from $2.1 billion to $2.5 billion per ship. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class RJ Stratchko/Released)
U.S. President Donald Trump maintains a long-held U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity when it comes to Taiwan defense, with no clear directive about the commitment of American soldiers in the case of a conflict. However, as Xi Jinping’s 2027 Taiwan invasion readiness date looms, U.S. Navy officials must balance the rising threat of the PLAN with the security of their fleet.
The “Hellscape” Solution
The “hellscape” plan was introduced to combat strategic disadvantages the U.S. may face while defending Taiwan in the South China Sea. Detailed by Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the strategy will speed up reaction time, incur lower costs to naval infrastructure, and result in fewer losses of American lives.
A “hellscape” of unmanned vehicles in the South China Sea will provide the limited number of U.S. warships in the Indo-Pacific with enough power to delay the PLAN until a full fleet can assemble. The nature of this new fleet system minimizes the loss of human life by using UAVs to disrupt and damage the PLAN fleet as much as possible.
Replicator 1 does not face many of the production challenges typical of the shipbuilding industry. The initiative was announced in August 2023 with a two-year estimation for the project’s timeline and a $1 billion budget. Set to meet its two-year timeline, the thousands of Replicator drones will cost 40% of what it takes to build one Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. In an impressive display of public-private partnership, over 800 companies are contributing to the construction of this fleet.
Future Considerations
To maintain America’s position as a global naval superpower, the DoD must greatly increase its investment in unmanned vehicles. While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act appropriated $450 million and $145 million to USV/UUVs and UAVs respectively, it allocated $29 billion to shipbuilding. Replicator 1 will produce an unspecified number of unmanned vehicles, with estimates in the thousands, but in 2023, Ukraine was losing as many as 10,000 drones per month in its conflict with Russia.
As this military technology advances, it is essential to consider the points below:
- Unmanned vehicles are vulnerable to cyberattacks. The transition to technological-based warfare comes with risks, especially when facing an adversary with some of the most advanced offensive cyber capabilities in the world. Extra precautions must be taken to mitigate the chance of cyber intrusion.
- Economic espionage is a hallmark of PLA military strategy. China continues to conduct sophisticated economic espionage against the U.S. to gain access to sensitive technology and systems. New innovations in the unmanned vehicle industry should be heavily protected to maintain a capacity gap with China.
- Risk tolerance should trend upwards. Given the autonomous and low-cost nature of the new fleet, the U.S. should be aggressive with deploying unmanned vehicles. An increase of $2 billion to Replicator’s budget would likely be needed to secure U.S. operational needs in Taiwan.
If enough are produced before an invasion, unmanned vehicles may overcome the geostrategic constraints American forces face in defending Taiwan against the Chinese Navy. The U.S. is the top user of unmanned military drones, but production advancements are limited by insufficient funds and vulnerability to espionage. Given increased cyber and economic security measures, higher risk tolerance, and increased spending, unmanned vehicles will be critical to a Taiwan defense.
