Russian soldiers demining an area in Syria recaptured by the Assad regime from the Islamic State in 2016. (Source: mil.ru)
Syria’s Reset: What the U.S. Move Means for the Region and for Russia
President Donald Trump recently traveled to the Middle East on the first major overseas tour of his second term, where he announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria after 13 years of devastating war. A major development that could pave the way for overall improvement under the new, fragile government, this announcement’s far-reaching impacts include reshaping the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East and recalibrating the balance of power in a region long defined by foreign influence. As great power competition escalates today, it’s worth examining Russia’s historical involvement in the war and what the future holds for its influence in the Middle East.
The conflict in Syria first broke out in 2011 after the start of the Arab Spring, and Bashar al-Assad’s repressive government was quick to crack down on the movement. However, momentum grew across the country, and armed opposition forces, comprising small militias and military defectors, began to form. As the strife escalated, outside powers saw an opportunity to gain an advantage in their own geopolitical rivalries. Syria’s civil war quickly became a complicated proxy war, with external actors like Russia lending support to Assad and NATO members such as Turkey and the United States backing the rebels. After a long period of turmoil, near the end of 2024, the rebel groups launched a rapid offensive that finally overthrew Assad, who fled to Moscow. Ahmed al-Sharaa was then named the president of Syria for the “transitional period” as the country seeks to rebuild after the more than decade-long war.
Russian intervention in Syria began with the deployment of troops in 2015, but the countries’ alliance dates back to the Soviet Union. Syria offered Russia a rare and long-standing ally in the Arab world, as well as a geographic foothold in the eastern Mediterranean. Moscow’s intervention in the conflict aimed to protect this strategic partner, gain access to military infrastructure like the Tartus Naval Base and Khmeimim Air Base, and project power beyond its traditional European and Central Asian sphere of influence. Supporting the Assad regime also allowed Russia to train its combat forces, test weapons technology, and profiteer through private security contracts, often facilitated by the shadowy Wagner Group. Furthermore, Moscow viewed Syria as an opportunity to reassert itself on the global stage, counterbalancing Western influence and establishing itself as an indispensable arbiter in the region, while signaling to other authoritarian allies that Russia would stand by them. However, as the invasion of Ukraine drags on, it is apparent that the Kremlin can no longer afford to use dwindling resources elsewhere.
The Syrian conflict has had massive geopolitical ramifications, not least of which has been the humanitarian crisis with an estimated death toll of over 615,000, 14 million people displaced, and 90% of the remaining population living below the poverty line. Policymakers and regional stakeholders see the removal of sanctions as a strategic opening to support Syria’s reconstruction after 45 years of significant economic isolation. In addition, the United States’ supportive move for the new Syrian government will likely further erode Russian regional influence as it no longer functions as a vital foreign benefactor to Syria’s political regime. This strategic setback impedes Russia’s ability to shape events in the Levant, isolating it further and undermining its credibility as a power broker. It could also foster greater cooperation between the United States and Syria, while allowing Syria more space for self-determination. In effect, Russia has lost its chance to keep using the nation as a geopolitical chess piece.
The fall of Assad and the lifting of U.S. sanctions mark a turning point for Syria and a sharp blow to Russia’s influence. This policy shift signals Washington’s cautious confidence in Syria’s new leadership, opening the door to renewed regional diplomacy and economic investment. Simultaneously, these events have dealt a strategic blow to Russia, whose long-standing backing of the Assad regime has now delivered diminishing returns. As Syria begins a new chapter, the regional balance of power will shift, offering both prospects for recovery and a redefined geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
