In 2009, the Obama administration announced the “Phased Adaptive Approach” (PAA) to ballistic missile defense (BMD) in Europe.  The PAA calls for an expansion of U.S. land and sea-based missile defense capabilities in Europe through 2020.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report (PDF) yesterday discussing some of the challenges to PAA implementation, with a particular focus on logistics and inter-departmental cooperation.  The report recommends that DOD:

• clarify the operational goals of the PAA;
• map out overall costs;
• develop a schedule to coordinate acquisition, infrastructure, and personnel activities; and
• develop metrics to evaluate BMD assets within the PAA.

Some takeaways from the report:

Flexibility vs. Planning

According to the report, DOD sees the PAA as a “policy framework” for adding and improving U.S. BMD assets in Europe, such as interceptors and radars, rather than a cohesive plan.  DOD therefore prefers to evaluate costs and logistical challenges on an asset-by-asset basis, rather than doing so for the entire PAA.  The GAO believes that this hurts coordination between departments, masks the true costs of the PAA, and leads to uncertainty about the “relative priority of [PAA] to other BMD missions around the world.”

This tension between flexibility and planning features prominently in the report, and may turn out to be one of the main debates about PAA going forward.  For instance, DOD’s desire to “preserve [the] ability to respond to crises by surging mobile and relocatable BMD assets wherever needed” may turn out to very expensive, and GAO suggests providing “details on assumed baselines and surged assets” to policymakers.

Cooperation with Europe/NATO

Last month, Arms Control Today reported:

The leaders of NATO’s 28 countries last month endorsed a U.S. plan to provide missile defense coverage over all European member states. At its Nov. 19-20 summit in Lisbon, the alliance also formally invited Russia to participate in the planned system, and Moscow and NATO agreed to take the first steps toward missile defense cooperation. It is unclear how far this cooperation will ultimately go.

The GAO report’s chapter on U.S.-NATO BMD cooperation states:

The U.S. intends to make [PAA] its national contribution to a future NATO BMD capability and is therefore not asking NATO for financial support for [PAA] assets. However, the U.S. is seeking allied participation and burden sharing for [PAA] that may be demonstrated in various ways.

…
A way in which NATO allies can share the burden in providing territorial missile defense of NATO is by contributing their national BMD assets; however, the U.S. is thus far the only NATO member nation developing BMD assets designed to provide territorial defense.

Many European countries are facing budget crises and reduced defense spending, and it will be difficult for them to contribute substantively to BMD systems.  Still, a system intended to defend Europe will require some kind of European involvement.

Connection with American Strategy

Back in June, Under Secretaries of Defense Michele Flournoy and Ashton B. Carter wrote in the Wall Street Journal:

Iran’s continued pursuit of an illicit nuclear program and North Korea’s rash intimidation after sinking a South Korean navy ship are but the most recent reminders of the real need for effective U.S. missile defenses.

To counter Iran’s ballistic missile program, President Obama announced a phased adaptive approach for European missile defense last September—a move unanimously welcomed by our NATO allies.

The GAO report contains some references to Iran and North Korea, but mostly discusses the PAA in the context of vaguely defined “missile threats.”  As such, there is little discussion of particular scenarios in which PAA capabilities would be necessary.  Granted, the PAA is still in its early stages, but U.S. military planners should ensure that it is implemented in a way that advances American strategy for the region, with an eye towards countering the threats that the United States and its allies will realistically face over the next decade.

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