Russian border guard cadets marching in a military parade on Red Square in Moscow in 2021. (Source: mil.ru)
From Ukraine to the Baltics: Russia’s Expanding Gray Zone Aggression
Russia’s war on Ukraine has been on full display for three years now, and its pattern of aggression towards its neighbors has only increased since the conflict broke out. Several regions are now seeing an uptick in gray zone aggression, defined as escalating geopolitical maneuvers that operate below direct warfare. This is particularly alarming as Putin has felt emboldened by both the permissive stance of the Trump administration in Ukraine and his long-standing belief that the Soviet Union’s collapse was the ‘biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” Acknowledgment of these intrusive tactics across the wider region would help highlight the hostile grand strategy that Russia is using to destabilize the continent.
The “gray zone” is characterized by coercive or subversive activities that do not directly amount to warfare but are more obscure with the intention to weaken and destabilize an adversary gradually, this can include economic extortion, election interference, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, military harassment, and even assassinations. Per American military doctrine, gray zone tactics can occur across all five warfighting domains. Autocratic states have an advantage in this approach, given their centralized power structure and tendency to ignore rules-based international norms. While the term is relatively new, gray zone operations are not, and they will likely increase in the next few years as great power competition intensifies.
One possible reason for the surge in gray zone activity may be Russia’s desire to compensate for its faltering position in Ukraine, as the invasion has come at a high cost and few territorial gains. The Kremlin, still driven by its grievance over the post-Soviet loss of influence, may be employing sub-threshold tactics to project strength, aiming to deter outside powers from fully understanding its vulnerabilities. It aims to overwhelm the response bandwidths of individual countries and multilateral organizations by provoking multiple nuisance-like disturbances across the West. This strategy mirrors that of similar autocratic regimes, such as North Korea, which often escalate provocations in an attempt to signal relevance and power projection amid internal challenges, seeking to use instability as a form of leverage.
While the Ukrainian war continues and Belarus remains an obvious puppet state, concerns are growing that Russia could begin to focus on other neighboring states. The Baltics and the Balkans, in particular, are among the regions most on edge. Recent examples of kinetic operations include testing the border of the Narva River shared with Estonia, disrupting and endangering civilian aircraft by GPS signal jamming, and economic and election interference in Moldova. However, Russia’s most famous and disruptive tool in its arsenal, cyber hybrid warfare, is perhaps its most effective for sowing division in Europe and beyond. The cyber domain remains one of the most challenging arenas for countering aggression due to the deniable nature and often limited, dispersed impact of such measures as cyberattacks, state-sponsored hacking, and disinformation campaigns. These tactics, now even extending into space, are designed to gradually erode resistance and normalize hostility, making such actions appear routine and acceptable over time. This persistent pressure risks escalating into open conflict, as seen in the case of Ukraine when restraint ultimately gave way.
Russian gray zone aggression will likely continue across all five warfighting domains, requiring vigilance and resilience from targeted states. Europe and its allies should commit to intelligence sharing, which may ultimately exclude the United States, for more strategic coordination when responding to threats and strengthening alliances, as collaboration will prove critical for effective preparation. Additionally, Europe must urgently curb its dependence on Russian energy sources. The energy sector is a pivotal financial resource for Russia, and the ability to dodge the full impact of sanctions has kept its economy afloat and able to finance nefarious statecraft. Only by closing these vulnerabilities and acting collectively can democratic nations deter further aggression and safeguard their sovereignty.
In the face of an evolving and persistent threat, gray zone aggression is not a passing phenomenon but a core element of Russia’s strategic playbook. Putin’s sense of injustice over the independence of former Soviet states has fueled his efforts to reclaim influence and reshape the geopolitical landscape into a more multipolar world order. Addressing this challenge requires unity, foresight, and sustained commitment, or the costs will only grow.
