NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, Wang Yi, at the Munich Security Conference. NATO
Donald Trump’s Aggressive Foreign Policy Presents an Opportunity for China
The second Trump administration’s drastic change in foreign policy has, so far, alienated its European allies, dismantled a major source of American soft power in USAID, and soured relations with Colombia, one of the U.S.’ strongest allies in Latin America. Donald Trump’s “iron-fist” approach to foreign policy is shaking the world order, but this stark contrast in U.S. foreign policy is not whipping world leaders into shape as he predicted. Instead, it is ushering in U.S. isolation in security and economic spheres, and encouraging greater Chinese relations with U.S. allies.
Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy, while not new to U.S. allies and partners, comes with a renewed aggressiveness that leaves them questioning the future of their relationship with the United States. Friendly nations are now reconsidering their diplomatic, security, and economic coupling with the United States, and China is taking advantage of the chaos to advance relations with them. As the U.S. completes the dissolution of USAID and the cessation of tens of billions of dollars of foreign aid supporting humanitarian programs, China continues investing hundreds of billions of dollars across the developed and the developing world, building its sphere of influence.
Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European allies in Munich coincided with new negotiations between the United States and Russia about the re-normalization of diplomatic relations and ending the war in Ukraine—though no Ukrainian or European officials were involved. In response to Vance’s comments and the Riyadh meeting, new expected German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, expressed his desire to “achieve independence from the U.S.” Since Riyadh, Trump has ceased all aid to Ukraine in response to his argument with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, prompting European leaders to work towards a peace deal and security sphere that does not include the United States. Even populist conservative leaders across Europe are distancing themselves from Trump.
While the Trump administration defied the wishes of its European allies, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi sided with them, supporting “Europe’s important role in the peace talks.” As tensions between the United States and its NATO allies rise, the Europeans should consider how much American belligerence they can tolerate before greater internalizing their defense industry. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 63% of E.U. countries’ military procurement spending went to U.S. defense companies, but now, the E.U. has laid out an emergency defense spending plan that will significantly boost European defense spending and likely internalize more if its defense procurement and production. If the United States maintains its current stance in Europe, it will not only hurt its position on the world stage and its ability to attract cooperation, but it will also find itself outside of a sphere of security it has grown and maintained for decades.
In addition to Washington’s new diplomatic approach, American economic policy is not convincing world leaders to see the United States as a reliable ally. Due to drastic shifts in U.S. foreign and economic policy across administrations this past decade, European nations are reevaluating the risks associated with such significant coupling. Trump floated imposing 25 percent tariffs on an assortment of European goods, to which the E.U. has announced it would “react firmly and immediately.” Now, Europe has begun thawing relations with China, because under constant threats of U.S. tariffs, China is currently the more predictable trading partner.
But the Trump administration has not just stirred international relations in Europe. The first headline foreign policy event of Trump’s second term saw 25 percent tariffs on all Colombian goods due to President Gustavo Petro’s refusal to accept a military cargo plane of deported immigrants on the grounds it lacked human “dignity”. While Petro ultimately backed down due to pressure, the incident sent the message of Trump’s revived strongarm foreign policy to American allies. Since then, Colombia, the 14th largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid in 2023 and one of Washington’s strongest historical allies in Latin America, has accelerated its months-long process of economic decoupling from the United States. Now, Colombia is finalizing plans to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative while also seeking to join BRICS and potentially enter a free-trade agreement with China.
If the United States keeps pushing this hostile foreign policy, it will lose allies quicker than it can retain or attract them. While it may prove effective in isolated cases, such as Panama, this strategy should not become the standard. In an increasingly multipolar world where allies are the greatest asset, China is glad to develop partnerships with U.S. allies that do not involve the public admonishment that comes with Donald Trump.
