Syria Update: del Ponte Suggests Rebel CW Use But Commission Does Not Confirm
Yesterday, Carla del Ponte, a member of the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (Commission of Inquiry on Syria, or CoI) leaked what could be a glimpse of the impending UN report on CW use by Syrian rebel forces. In an informal interview with Swiss public broadcaster SRI, del Ponte stated that preliminary – and presumably internal – reports indicate “strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof of the use of sarin gas” by the opposition forces.
Although any statements from del Ponte – a former Attorney-General of Switzerland and a notable ICC prosecutor on human rights trials for the conflicts in Yugoslavia and Rwanda – will be weighted heavily by the international media, the IoC attempted to quell the news storm by releasing this statement:
Geneva, 6 May 2013 — The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic wishes to clarify that it has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict. As a result, the Commission is not in a position to further comment on the allegations at this time.
The Chair of the Commission of Inquiry, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, reminds all parties to the conflict that the use of chemical weapons is prohibited in all circumstances under customary international humanitarian law.
In line with its mandate, the Commission is currently investigating all allegations of violations of international law in the Syrian Arab Republic and will issue its findings to the Human Rights Council on 3 June 2013, as mandated by resolution 22/24.
It is unclear whether the IoC’s release was based in real uncertainty or just wise caution. It seems unlikely that a seasoned professional like del Ponte would allude to such a startling finding if it were not well-founded, and it makes sense that the IoC would be eager to complete its investigation formally before making allegations. Therefore, it is safe to assume that del Ponte’s assessment is in line with current committee findings, despite its protests.
If this is the case, and the evidence does show that rebels have launched chemical attacks, the calculus of international response, regional security, and public sentiment will shift.
In short, such news will bolster the regime. The international community will be far less amenable to aiding rebel groups that have used chemical weapons, regional powers will grow increasingly concerned over the reliability of opposition groups as legitimate governing figures if they are proven to have used weapons of mass destruction, and the U.S. and its allies, to Russia’s satisfaction, will have to re-evaluate its allignment towards rebel groups.
The question of how the U.S. will react is particularly interesting. President Obama has warned Assad that using his chemical weapons will constitute the crossing of a red line that would trigger a significant international response, but Mr. Obama has not issued a similar warning to the Syrian opposition, and little discussion of the response to such an attack exists, so we are dealing somewhat in unknown quantities.
The timing of del Ponte’s comments and the official IoC response will make for interesting diplomatic developments, with Secretary of State John Kerry traveling to Russia this week to discuss collaboration on strategies to resolve the war in Syria.
