Reporting in from Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan – where there is considerable enthusiasm, apprehension, skepticism and other mixed emotions about the second democratic Afghan elections… Preparations for the elections – unlike the first ones in 2004 and 2005, these are Afghan-run – have been ongoing for several months. There are about 7000 polling centers, constituting roughly 28,000 polling stations. Due to security conditions it is unclear if all of the centers will be able to open for voting on the 20th. Out of about 31 million Afghans, about 16.5 million are registered to vote (5.4 million voters were added to the number registered for these elections). Polling will take place from about 7am-4pm. Approximately 300 international observers – from the European Union, International Republican Institute (IRI), National Democratic Institute and Japanese delegations – will monitor most of Afghanistan on Election Day, reporting on what they see. The IRI delegates were told this morning, “these elections are important to Afghans because they are looking for accountability…it is very important for Afghans that the elections are legitimate. That’s what we are here to determine.”

So, why the big hubbub over these elections? First, it’s interesting to note that the hubbub is first and foremost Afghan – people have been turning out by the thousands at rallies, posters are plastered everywhere and during our briefings Abdullah Abdullah (a former foreign minister and one of the front-running presidential candidates) airdropped leaflets right over the buildings where we election observers were sitting sequestered. Most officials are pleasantly surprised that Afghans are engaged and see a link between the election activity and the results of the latest IRI poll, which found that 62% of Afghans interviewed see Afghanistan on the right track – up from 30% in May. The elections are for the presidency and provincial officials. At the provincial level it is interesting to see there are numerous candidates, multiple from within the same ethnic group or tribe. This is seen as demonstrating that Afghans are not taking instructions from tribal elders as to which candidate should run or be supported. However, at the national level, most officials briefing observers today stated that in conversation, many Pashtuns tend to admit favoring a Pashtun president (two of the four front-runners are Pashtun). How they will vote may be another story.  We received a briefing from a pollster as well and it remains to be seen whether the fact that people may expect one outcome affects their interest in voting or not.  That is to say, if you think one guy will win anyway, do you bother voting, especially if the Taliban just dropped by your mosque or leafleted your house to remind you they intend to make you suffer if you do?

For the international community, this election is of course a temperature check on how Afghanistan is doing in terms of its political development, and also of the capability of international and Afghan forces to provide security for Afghans. Ultimately, it will be used to gauge the level of stability in Afghanistan, and whether democracy is taking hold. Those of us observing the elections are concerned about security — ours and that of the Afghan voters. We are watching, asking about intimidation, and about preventing fraud. Will putting indelible purple ink on the fingers of those who voted help – or hurt? It could literally hurt, if the Taliban follow through on their threats to cut off fingers and heads. Will identification cards (in rural areas some are being issued to women without photos for religious reasons, according to Al Jazeera, playing in our computer room) ensure only one vote only for registered voters? Will ballots be protected and accounted for? These are some of the micro-topics discussed today during briefings with the Afghan Independent Election Commission, the Electoral Complaints Commission, the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, media representatives, and U.S. Ambassador Tim Carney.

The immediate questions are: · Will the Taliban intimidate voters? If so, to what extent? · Will the elections be free of fraud, or at least widespread fraud that would throw their credibility into question? · Will there be a run off? · Will the results be transmitted relatively quickly to the population? · Who will win and what difference will it make to the future of Afghanistan?

Date posted: Monday, August 17th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Posted in: Afghanistan
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