Six months after the release of the groundbreaking report, Are We Winning? Measuring Progress in the Struggle Against Violent Jihadism [5], which examined 10 metrics of success—or lack thereof—in the “war on terror,” report author, Bernard I. Finel, examined changes in these metrics and what they mean for U.S. counter-terrorism policy.

Are We Winning? An Interim Report outlines three key developments over the past six months, including an increase in worldwide Islamist violence, a broadening of the appeal of jihadism beyond its traditional recruiting base, and political developments in Pakistan that exposed fissures in U.S-Pakistan policy.  “Taken together, these developments suggest that the United States continues to lose ground overall in the war on terror, although there are hopeful signs that might foreshadow genuine progress in the coming year,” the report concludes.

The interim report also looks at changes in the frequency of violence claimed by jihadist groups, as well as the geographic and demographic dispersal of jihadist recruitment, and contrasts them with the recent military successes in Iraq. What it found was a dangerously metastasizing jihadist threat and a largely tone-deaf U.S. policy response due mainly to a preoccupation with the apparent success of the Iraq surge strategy.

The report concludes that there is increasing evidence that progress in Iraq is “fundamentally disconnected” from the struggle against the broader global jihadist movement and that major changes in U.S. counter-terrorism strategy are needed to respond to the growing threat outside of the Iraq and Afghanistan war theatres. 

Such a reexamination of policy would present new opportunities for the U.S., including in Pakistan, where the Islamist parties were soundly routed by the moderate, secular forces in an election that was widely viewed as a repudiation of Pakistani President Pervez Musharaff’s pro-U.S. polices. 

U.S. and coalition forces will have to proceed carefully, but the opportunity exists to create a fundamentally different relationship with Pakistan that supports and cooperates with a broad range of indigenous institutions.  It remains to be seen, however, whether the United States will be able to take advantage of what is likely a fleeting opportunity.

Listen to an audio replay of this event here [6].